Pest Risk Assessment Database

Comprehensive scoring criteria and assessment guidance for pest risk analysis

Scoring & Confidence

Risk assessment scoring criteria and confidence level definitions used in pest risk analysis. Each category is scored from 1 (Very Low Risk) to 5 (Very High Risk).

Likelihood of Entry

Risk Assessment Criteria
Score 5 5 - Very High Risk

Present in neighbouring country and spreads fast

Score 4 4 - High Risk

Present in Africa (not in neighbouring countries) and spread fast; or in neighbouring country and spreads slowly

Score 3 3 - Medium Risk

Present in Africa (not in neighbouring countries) and spread slowly; or absent from Africa but: recently spreads very fast on several continents, or often associated to a commodity commonly imported, or frequently intercepted in the focus country

Score 2 2 - Low Risk

Absent from Africa but likely to be infrequently imported on a commodity and/or regulated articles

Score 1 1 - Very Low Risk

Absent from Africa and unlikely to be in imported commodity and/or regulated articles

Likelihood of Establishment

Risk Assessment Criteria
Score 5 5 - Very High Risk

Large areas in focus country climatically suitable and host plants very abundant

Score 4 4 - High Risk

Large areas in focus country climatically suitable and host plants moderately abundant

Score 3 3 - Medium Risk

Large areas in focus country climatically suitable and host plant rare; or only few areas in focus country climatically suitable but host plants at least moderately abundant

Score 2 2 - Low Risk

Only few areas in focus country climatically suitable; or host plants rare

Score 1 1 - Very Low Risk

Focus country climatically unsuitable or host plants not present

Magnitude of Socio-Economic Impact

Risk Assessment Criteria
Score 5 5 - Very High Risk

The species has the potential to threaten, at least locally, a crop that is key for the focus country's economy

Score 4 4 - High Risk

The species has the potential to threaten, at least locally, the cultivation of a plant that is regularly cultivated or utilised; or to regularly attack a crop that is key for the focus country's economy without threatening this latter

Score 3 3 - Medium Risk

The species damages plants that are regularly cultivated or utilised but without threatening the cultivation, utilisation or trade of this crop

Score 2 2 - Low Risk

The species damages plants that are only occasionally cultivated or utilised

Score 1 1 - Very Low Risk

The species does not attack plants that are cultivated or utilised

Magnitude of Environmental Impact

Risk Assessment Criteria
Score 5 5 - Very High Risk

The species has the potential to eradicate a native species or to locally eradicate a keystone species

Score 4 4 - High Risk

The species has the potential to locally eradicate a native species or to affect populations of a protected or keystone species

Score 3 3 - Medium Risk

The species has the potential to lower the population levels of a native species

Score 2 2 - Low Risk

The species will affect individuals of a native species without affecting its population level

Score 1 1 - Very Low Risk

The species will not affect any native species